Month: March 2015

Daily Market Update – March 13, 2015 (8:45 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  SNDK, UAL

Rollovers:  BAC

Expirations:   CHK, GDX, HAL, KO

The following were ex-dividend this week:  NEM (3/10 $0.02), KO (3/12 $0.33), GME (3/13 $0.36)

The following will be ex-dividend next week: LVS (3/19 $0.65)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM.

Note:   Just a word about the rollover trade in GameStop late yesterday afternoon.

Shares go ex-dividend tomorrow for $0.36 and the option contract had a week to run. Further, the company reports earnings during the first week of the April 2015 cycle.

With shares trading about $0.44 above the threshold price for early assignment, the fact that a week still remained and that there could be some speculative trading in the days before earnings on March 26th, there was a chance the the $39 strikes wouldn’t be assigned early.

However, I wanted to do something to at least be able to get part of that dividend, especially since the position was more than 3 months old and I felt like I “deserved” the dividend.

The way to do that was by rolling shares over from $39 to $39.50 and using the same expiration date. Doing so incurred an ND of $0.27 in exchange for an additional $0.50 in the strike, which yields a net $0.23.

That’s the case if the shares are assigned early tonight.

With shares closing at $39.79 the chances of the March 20 $39.50 strikes being assigned early is very small, but there still remains a fair chance that the $39 strikes will face early assignment.

If neither the $39 nor $39.50 options are exercised early you also get to keep the dividend.

However, if you were able to roll over to the $39.50, then, based on the trading of shares subsequently, you can make the decision to rollover again, but this time, maybe even back down to $39 in order to get some additional premium to offset the reduction in strike price, in order that there is a better chance of getting out of the position prior to earnings.

Daily Market Update – March 12, 2015 (Close)

With another loss, albeit a small one yesterday, after having spent most of the session in the green, the market was about 3.7%.lower to start the day.

That’s the level of the declines seen in January 2015, when there were actually 3 such declines in succession during the course of that month. That period really stood out in contrast to the preceding 30 months or so that had been progressing in a very regular fashion, having declines every 2 months.

That was reason to take notice.

As the pilot episode of a basic cable show had one of its stars say “you don’t just break bad.”

But in looking back there really was a black and white difference between the market’s behavior from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2015. It wasn’t just the difference between closing 2014 at a record high and then tradiung below those highs to start 2015, it was the quality of the trading. Not only increased volatility, since we hqad seen that a few times earlier in 2014, but the rapid stacatto behavior of the markets.

Not just the stock markets, but just about everything else surrounding it that can have direct and indirect impacts. While markets in such commodities as corn, lumber and cocoa may be interesting, they’re not the kind that have much impact on stock markets. On the other hand, government bonds, currencies, precious metals and oil markets do and they have been equally wild of late.

It’s hard, though, to explain the behavior. Although the simple thing is to point fingers at the dislocation in the oil markets, the dislocation isn’t that clear.

What is surprising is to hear so many well regarded analysts talk about being caught off guard by the trickle down effects of events, as if the impacts of a stronger US Dollar had never been studied before. Almost any middle school aged child could tell you that in an economy that runs a trade deficit that deficit is likely to increase as our goods become more expensive and competing goods get less expensive and begin coming into the country in greater numbers.

So you might think that someone along the line would have already used some logic, the kind that had proven itself correct in the past, to surmise that lower prices for goods in Europe and fewer exports of goods to Europe, would have an adverse impact on the earnings of companies that have business in Europe.

But as with so many things in economics, that’s just part of a well defined cycle, that you would have thought would have taken no one by surprise, especially the people that control the great majority of the stock market’s trading volume.

Since most stocks of any consequence are majority owned by institutions the moves you see on a daily basis, including the ones that feel so irrational, are all institutionally inspired.

This morning’s mild gain in the pre-open futures didn’t bring too much in the way of comfort and as always was the kind that could end up being meaningless as the day began to trade for real. At that moment in the morning that I was looking at the early numbers, I recalled that in the past 2 weeks there was no justification in counting chickens before they were hatched. Despite that there was still the possibility of some assignments this week and maybe even a rollover or two.

What no one had counted on, and there’s absolutely no reason for the market’s behavior today, but it simply went up 250 points as easily as it went down 300 points earlier in the week.

So that means that the assignments and rollovers are still in contention, at least, but there’s still tomorrow to contend with. Those would be nice if they could end up happening that way, but there’s still a lot of dust that has to settle as 2015 has thus far had 3 months of trading with extremely different characters that turned on and off on a dime and without much connection to real news.

Next week we get what may be a very consequential FOMC Statement release and a Chairman’s press conference where we may possibly be able to put some of the irrational fears of a small interest rate increase behind us and finally move on.

Note:   Just a word about the rollover trade in GameStop late in the afternoon.

Shares go ex-dividend tomorrow for $0.36 and the option contract had a week to run. Further, the company reports earnings during the first week of the April 2015 cycle.

With shares trading about $0.44 above the threshold price for early assignment, the fact that a week still remained and that there could be some speculative trading in the days before earnings on March 26th, there was a chance the the $39 strikes wouldn’t be assigned early.

However, I wanted to do something to at least be able to get part of that dividend, especially since the position was more than 3 months old and I felt like I “deserved” the dividend.

The way to do that was by rolling shares over from $39 to $39.50 and using the same expiration date. Doing so incurred an ND of $0.27 in exchange for an additional $0.50 in the strike, which yields a net $0.23.

That’s the case if the shares are assigned early tonight.

With shares closing at $39.79 the chances of the March 20 $39.50 strikes being assigned early is very small, but there still remains a fair chance that the $39 strikes will face early assignment.

If neither the $39 nor $39.50 options are exercised early you also get to keep the dividend.

However, if you were able to roll over to the $39.50, then, based on the trading of shares subsequently, you can make the decision to rollover again, but this time, maybe even back down to $39 in order to get some additional premium to offset the reduction in strike price, in order that there is a better chance of getting out of the position prior to earnings.

Daily Market Update – March 12, 2015 (8:30 AM)

With another loss, albeit a small one yesterday, after having spent most of the session in the green, the market is now now about 3.7%.

That’s the level of the declines seen in January 2015, when there were actually 3 such declines in succession during the course of that month. That period really stood out in contrast to the preceding 30 months or so that had been progressing in a very regular fashion, having declines every 2 months.

That was reason to take notice.

As the pilot episode of a basic cable show had one of its stars say “you don’t just break bad.”

But in looking back there really was a black and white difference between the market’s behavior from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2015. It wasn’t just the difference between closing 2014 at a record high and then tradiung below those highs to start 2015, it was the quality of the trading. Not only increased volatility, since we hqad seen that a few times earlier in 2014, but the rapid stacatto behavior of the markets.

Not just the stock markets, but just about everything else surrounding it that can have direct and indirect impacts. While markets in such commodities as corn, lumber and cocoa may be interesting, they’re not the kind that have much impact on stock markets. On the other hand, government bonds, currencies, precious metals and oil markets do and they have been equally wild of late.

It’s hard, though, to explain the behavior. Although the simple thing is to point fingers at the dislocation in the oil markets, the dislocation isn’t that clear.

What is surprising is to hear so many well regarded analysts talk about being caught off guard by the trickle down effects of events, as if the impacts of a stronger US Dollar had never been studied before. Almost any middle school aged child could tell you that in an economy that runs a trade deficit that deficit is likely to increase as our goods become more expensive and competing goods get less expensive and begin coming into the country in greater numbers.

So you might think that someone along the line would have already used some logic, the kind that had proven itself correct in the past, to surmise that lower prices for goods in Europe and fewer exports of goods to Europe, would have an adverse impact on the earnings of companies that have business in Europe.

But as with so many things in economics, that’s just part of a well defined cycle, that you would have thought would have taken no one by surprise, especially the people that control the great majority of the stock market’s trading volume.

Since most stocks of any consequence are majority owned by institutions the moves you see on a daily basis, including the ones that feel so irrational, are all institution
ally inspired.

This morning’s mild gain in the pre-open futures doesn’t bring too much in the way of comfort and could end up being meaningless as the day begins to trade for real. At the moment, recalling that in the past 2 weeks there was no justification in counting chickens before they were hatched, there is still the possibility of some assignments this week and maybe even a rollover or two.

Those would be nice if they could end up happening that way, but there’s still a lot of dust that has to settle as 2015 has thus far had 3 months of trading with extremely different characters that turned on and off on a dime and without much connection to real news.

Next week we get what may be a very consequential FOMC Statement release and a Chairman’s press conference where we may possibly be able to put some of the irrational fears of a small interest rate increase behind us and finally move on.

Daily Market Update – March 11, 2015 (Close)

After yesterday’s 300 point loss, following a nearly similar loss last Friday which was only half recovered to open the week, this morning’s small gains in the pre-open futures trading were no where close to recovering what’s been lost.

It still astonishes me that people can keep a straight face and talk about how it’s the realization that currency exchange rates are now serious challenges to corporate earnings, that was responsible for yesterday’s decline.’

The S&P 500 was now about 3.5% below its high from less than 2 weeks ago, as the morning was set to begin. However, the rise to that high occurred over a 4 week period. For the 6 weeks preceding that rise the market had been toying with 3-5% drops every 2 weeks. For the 2 1’2 years before that it was more like every 2 months that some sort of sell-off got our attention.

I’m not of the belief that there’s reason to believe that this time we’ll finally see the 10% kind of decline that everyone agrees is long overdue. While you can’t deny that it’s long overdue, it’s hard to point at any surprises that would be responsible for taking us there. However, based on yesterday’s market, apparently surprises aren’t a necessary component in the mix.

While so many, including myself wouldn’t have been surprised by a “dead cat bounce” today, it’s probably better that one didn’t occur. You saw what happened on Monday when we got one in response to Friday’s decline.

I’d rather see digestion of large moves, whether gains or losses. Today turned out to be a day for digesting.

While all of this is going on with stocks the volatility in other markets is also striking. Precious metals, interest rates, currencies and oil continue to move in big ways and all of those have direct and indirect influences on US equity markets, as well.

Is all of what’s going on, including the initiation of European Quantitative Easing now constituting a “Perfect Storm” that conspires against stocks?

I don’t think so, but it is making things unnecessarily challenging right now.

With a couple of new purchases for the week and little indication of anything positive to come for the rest of the week, my guess is that I won’t be adding any new positions and instead will be focusing on trying to get rollovers or maybe get lucky and get an assignment, or two to end out the week.

It’s always tempting, however, to want to buy something after the kind of price drops that we’ve seen in the past few days. The problem is that as we begin to approach the next earnings season, which begins in just 4 weeks, we may start getting earnings warnings from companies before their official reports, that reflect the currency exchange rates of late.

It’s hard to want to get in front of that kind of news. At the very least you would want to see some kind of evidence that there’s some stability ahead sooner rather than later.

With only a paltry advance in the pre-open futures, that wasn’t not the kind of advance that I’d be looking for to signal some kind of stability, although when it was all other it did turn out that way, even though the direction at the end of the day was reverse that of the futures, but at least the magnitude was predictive.

At this point, you have to believe that there may be another 1.5-2% left in the current decline, so I might rather be content to be wrong about that while I’m on the sidelines watching existing positions recover.

Daily Market Update – March 11, 2015 (9:00 AM)

After yesterday’s 300 point loss, following a nearly similar loss last Friday which was only half recovered to open the week, this morning’s small gains in the pre-open futures trading is no where close to recovering what’s been lost.

It still astonishes me that people can keep a straight face and talk about how it’s the realization that currency exchange rates are now serious challenges to corporate earnings, that was responsible for yesterday’s decline.’

The S&P 500 is now about 3.5% below its high from less than 2 weeks ago, but the rise to that high occurred over a 4 week period. For the 6 weeks preceding that rise the market had been toying with 3-5% drops every 2 weeks. For the 2 1’2 years before that it was more like every 2 months that some sort of sell-off got our attention.

I’m not of the belief that there’s reason to believe that this time we’ll finally see the 10% kind of decline that everyone agrees is long overdue. While you can’t deny that it’s long overdue, it’s hard to point at any surprises that would be responsible for taking us there. However, based on yesterday’s market, apparently surprises aren’t a necessary component in the mix.

While all of this is going on with stocks the volatility in other markets is also striking. Precious metals, interest rates, currencies and oil continue to move in big ways and all of those have direct and indirect influences on US equity markets, as well.

Is all of what’s going on, including the initiation of European Quantitative Easing now constituting a “Perfect Storm” that conspires against stocks?

I don’t think so, but it is making things unnecessarily challenging right now.

With a couple of new purchases for the week and little indication of anything positive to come for the rest of the week, my guess is that I won’t be adding any new positions and instead will be focusing on trying to get rollovers or maybe get lucky and get an assignment, or two to end out the week.

It’s always tempting, however, to want to buy something after the kind of price drops that we’ve seen in the past few days. The problem is that as we begin to approach the next earnings season, which begins in just 4 weeks, we may start getting earnings warnings from companies before their official reports, that reflect the currency exchange rates of late.

It’s hard to want to get in front of that kind of news. At the very least you would want to see some kind of evidence that there’s some stability ahead sooner rather than later.

With only a paltry advance in the pre-open futures, that’s not the kind of advance that I’d be looking for to signal some kind of stability. At this point, you have to believe that there may be another 1.5-2% left in the current decline, so I might rather be content to be wrong about that while I’m on the sidelines watching existing positions recover.

Daily Market Update – March 10, 2015 (Close)

While yesterday was nice, the market increase that resulted in half of Friday’s irrational sell-off being erased, was only rational itself if it was a way of trying to make up for Friday’s transgression. Otherwise, there was no reason to see the market rise 160 points, but usually that sort of climb is just accepted at face value and enjoyed for whatever it is.

But that’s not a very good reason for anything, especially if only half of what was lost was made up. All of the good reasons in the world can’t make up for that kind of deficit on a regular basis. When there’s no real reason for a decline any bounce back can only be considered as a down payment from a less than credit-worthy client.

This morning, the futures were pointing to another large and irrational downward move.

This time, a nearly 200 point loss is being blamed on what must be a sudden realization that the strong US Dollar will be deflating corporate profits. Somehow, this morning, there seemed to be a belief that no one had recognized that exchange rates have been rapidly bringing the US Dollar and the Euro closer and closer to parity.

I don’t understand too much about currencies, nor interest rates, but I do understand the basics and I especially know that there’s not been a secret that the US Dollar had been strengthening and cutting into profits, even as it makes it much more enjoyable to be vacationing abroad.

Either the cause for the morning decline was true, in which case there would really be reason to worry about those in charge of such huge chunks of the world’s investment dollars or people just need to find an excuse and this just seemed to be the first available culprit.

Listening to the “Chief Global Investment Strategist” of Blackrock in referring to the impact of a stronger US Dollar say that “people are just beginning to realize… ” makes me wonder what people he’s talking about. The people that I know aren’t capable of moving markets if they had come to the same sudden realization, so he must be referring to some other people, who you would think wouldn’t be in a position of being surprised by something fairly easy to predict as part of a well established cycle seen over and over again.

I also know that the kind of people who I know wouldn’t just dump their stocks on the event of a light bulb going off in their heads, although they might be more inclined to do so if it was someone else’s money.

On the other hand this just may be the starting phase of another of these mini-corrections, the kind that had been occurring much more frequently during the end of 2014 early part of 2015. From the end of January 2015 until the end of February we had been in a consistent climb higher. During the previous 2+ years, we had been on an almost clockwork-like correction every two months until that period from about October 2014 to January 2015.

While there’s nothing encouraging about a 200 point decline facing you to start the morning, there may be some encouragement if the decline is part of just another in a series of periodic corrections. The lesson learned from those over the past couple of years has been that those corrections are either good times to add positions, or at the very least
bad times to sell and run away.

As with so many things, it’s just hard to get the timing done just right.

Most of the time you don’t really pay too much attention to what the pre-open futures are indicating. Last week was a perfect example of the lack of correlation between those early trades and the rest of the day, especially when the early trades are showing only mild or moderate changes from the previous day’s close.

Where the association is high, however, is on mornings like the one today. When the movement is a large one it does tend to perpetuate itself as normal people wake up and either make their calls in to their brokers or automatic signals hit their managed accounts. Those usually sell when the market is sharply lower or buy when the market jumps higher.

Neither of those are especially good examples of good timing.

So this morning was simply one of watching, as yesterday’s close had us barely 2% below the high on the S&P 500, leaving about another 3% before the current declines become part of a typical 5% retreat. That’s about another 60 points on the S&P 500, with only about 18 of those being represented in the morning’s early trading. By the time the dust settled we were don 3.5% from those February highs, leaving only about another 30 points to go if 5% continues to be the key to understanding history.

Who knows? Maybe those brilliant people that just came to a realization that currency exchange matters may also brilliantly conclude that there are bargains to be had.

Daily Market Update – March 10, 2015 (9:00 AM)

While yesterday was nice, the market increase that resulted in half of Friday’s irrational sell-off being erased, was only rational itself if it was a way of trying to make up for Friday’s transgression. Otherwise, there was no reason to see the market rise 160 points, but usually that sort of climb is just accepted at face value and enjoyed for whatever it is.

But that’s not a very good reason for anything, especially if only half of what was lost was made up. All of the good reasons in the world can’t make up for that kind of deficit on a regular basis. When there’s no real reason for a decline any bounce back can only be considered as a down payment from a less than credit-worthy client.

This morning, the futures are pointing to another large and irrational downward move.

This time, a nearly 200 point loss is being blamed on what must be a sudden realization that the strong US Dollar will be deflating corporate profits. Somehow, this morning, there seems to be a belief that no one had recognized that exchange rates have been rapidly bringing the US Dollar and the Euro closer and closer to parity.

I don’t understand too much about currencies, nor interest rates, but I do understand the basics and I especially know that there’s not been a secret that the US Dollar had been strengthening and cutting into profits, even as it makes it much more enjoyable to be vacationing abroad.

Either the cause for the morning decline is true, in which case there is reason to worry about those in charge of such huge chunks of the world’s investment dollars or people just need to find an excuse and this just seemed to be the first available culprit.

Listening to the “Chief Global Investment Strategist” of Blackrock in referring to the impact of a stronger US Dollar say that “people are just beginning to realize… ” makes me wonder what people he’s talking about. The people that I know aren’t capable of moving markets if they had come to the same sudden realization, so he must be referring to some other people, who you would think wouldn’t be in a position of being surprised by something fairly easy to predict as part of a well established cycle seen over and over again.

On the other hand this just may be the starting phase of another of these mini-corrections, the kind that had been occurring much more frequently during the end of 2014 early part of 2015. From the end of January 2015 until the end of February we had been in a consistent climb higher. During the previous 2+ years, we had been on an almost clockwork-like correction every two months until that period from about October 2014 to January 2015.

While there’s nothing encouraging about a 200 point decline facing you to start the morning, there may be some encouragement if the decline is part of just another in a series of periodic corrections. The lesson learned from those over the past couple of years has been that those corrections are either good times to add positions, or at the very least bad times to sell and run away.

Most of the time you d
on’t really pay too much attention to what the pre-open futures are indicating. Last week was a perfect example of the lack of correlation between those early trades and the rest of the day, especially when the early trades are showing only mild or moderate changes from the previous day’s close.

Where the association is high, however, is on mornings like this. When the movement is a large one it does tend to perpetuate itself as normal people wake up and either make their calls in to their brokers or automatic signals hit their managed accounts. Those usually sell when the market is sharply lower or buy when the market jumps higher.

So this morning will simply be one of watching, as yesterday’s close had us barely 2% below the high on the S&P 500, leaving about another 3% before the current declines become part of a typical 5% retreat. That’s about another 60 points on the S&P 500, with only about 18 of those being represented in the morning’s early trading.

Who knows? Maybe those brilliant people that just came to a realization that currency exchange matters may also brilliantly conclude that there are bargains to be had.

Daily Market Update – March 9, 2015 (Close)

There was only a single day last week that the market made any sense.

That was on Thursday when shares were little moved on a day when there was very little news. The previous days also had no news, but markets moved strongly higher and lower and were volatile on an intra-day basis, as well.

Friday, of course, was a story unto itself, as I still have a hard time understanding why those who should have ice in their veins and who should have discounted future interest rate hikes, could have responded with the kind of sell off that we saw. That’s especially true when you consider that all  that occurred was the release of some Employment data, that also has a habit of being adjusted in subsequent months.

Even more intriguing is that historically the period of the initiation of interest rate hikes tends to be associated with markets that continue to climb higher.

Given that the news received on Friday was a single point in time, represents a trend that we have all come to recognize as the prevailing direction of employment statistics and doesn’t appear to be accompanied by wage inflation, it really doesn’t make too much sense why the market fell nearly 300 points.

With the weekend intervening maybe there was an opportunity for cooler heads to prevail once the week’s pre-open futures started trading, as they are suggesting a very quiet open.

Of course, last week the pre-open futures meant absolutely nothing, other than on that single trading day.

Today they ended up not meaning too much, but the market still did the right thing.

It bounced back to erase more than half of Friday’s loss.

There was no news to justify that moive, it was just the right thing to do.

With last week being another in which the number of chickens produced was less than expected, my anticipated buying spree is likely to take another week off as it may be another good week to exercise some caution, as there’s absolutely no indication of market sentiment or direction to begin the week.

WIth a number of positions set to expire this week and double that number the following week when the monthly option cycle comes to its end, the likelihood is that any new positions will probably look at expirations this Friday, while rollovers may look to any premium opportunities that may be found in the first week of the April 2015 option cycle, although low volatility continues to keep forward week premiums lower than I would like to tie myself down in exchange.

That was certainly the mindset behind the day’s 2 new purchases, although it’s hard to refer to UAL as a new purchase, when it was the third time in less than a month doing so.

With a quiet news week ahead, there isn’t too much scheduled to upset things, but the past few weeks have been very quiet on international fronts. Even when there has been some news, our own markets haven’t really cared.

What may get increasing attention is the US Dollar slowly, maybe not so slowly, approaching parity with the Euro and resulting in more and more companies beginning to experience lower earnings due to foreign exchange issues and starting the process of issuing earnings warnings before the next earnings season starts in just 4 weeks.

But there, too, you have to wonder why those who manage large portfolios and funds and are principally the ones who create or destroy demand for stocks, wouldn’t have already factored such events into their expectations. It’s not as if this would be the first time in history that the US Dollar has strengthened, thereby resulting in weakened earnings and more competition from foreign consumer goods.

I know that I slept my way through most of my high school history classes, but for those who love to look at stock charts, looking at historical performance is a must. Too bad it isn’t necessarily coupled with trying to gain an understanding of the past in an effort to avoid the mistakes of the past.

Daily Market Update – March 9, 2015 (8:30 AM)

There was only a single day last week that the market made any sense.

That was on Thursday when shares were little moved on a day when there was very little news. The previous days also had no news, but markets moved strongly higher and lower and were volatile on an intra-day basis, as well.

Friday, of course, was a story unto itself, as I still have a hard time understanding why those who should have ice in their veins and who should have discounted future interest rate hikes, could have responded with the kind of sell off that we saw. That’s especially true when you consider that all  that occurred was the release of some Employment data, that also has a habit of being adjusted in subsequent months.

Even more intriguing is that historically the period of the initiation of interest rate hikes tends to be associated with markets that continue to climb higher.

Given that the news received on Friday was a single point in time, represents a trend that we have all come to recognize as the prevailing direction of employment statistics and doesn’t appear to be accompanied by wage inflation, it really doesn’t make too much sense why the market fell nearly 300 points.

With the weekend intervening maybe there was an opportunity for cooler heads to prevail once the week’s pre-open futures started trading, as they are suggesting a very quiet open.

Of course, last week the pre-open futures meant absolutely nothing, other than on that single trading day.

With last week being another in which the number of chickens produced was less than expected, my anticipated buying spree is likely to take another week off as it may be another good week to exercise some caution, as there’s absolutely no indication of market sentiment or direction to begin the week.

WIth a number of positions set to expire this week and double that number the following week when the monthly option cycle comes to its end, the likelihood is that any new positions will probably look at expirations this Friday, while rollovers may look to any premium opportunities that may be found in the first week of the April 2015 option cycle, although low volatility continues to keep forward week premiums lower than I would like to tie myself down in exchange.

With a quiet news week ahead, there isn’t too much scheduled to upset things, but the past few weeks have been very quiet on international fronts. Even when there has been some news, our own markets haven’t really cared.

What may get increasing attention is the US Dollar slowly, maybe not so slowly, approaching parity with the Euro and resulting in more and more companies beginning to experience lower earnings due to foreign exchange issues and starting the process of issuing earnings warnings before the next earnings season starts in just 4 weeks.

But there, too, you have to wonder why those who manage large portfolios and funds and are principally
the ones who create or destroy demand for stocks, wouldn’t have already factored such events into their expectations. It’s not as if this would be the first time in history that the US Dollar has strengthened, thereby resulting in weakened earnings and more competition from foreign consumer goods.

I know that I slept my way through most of my high school history classes, but for those who love to look at stock charts, looking at historical performance is a must. Too bad it isn’t necessarily coupled with trying to gain an understanding of the past in an effort to avoid the mistakes of the past.